College Football Preview Week 10 Texas@Texas Tech

The Texas Longhorns must be exhausted after playing #1 Oklahoma, #11 Missouri, #6 Oklahoma State back-to back, but this week doesn’t get any easier for them when they face #7 Texas Tech. Texas and Texas Tech match up pretty evenly on paper. Great passing and scoring offenses, horrible pass defenses and great run defenses (thanks to the lack of running in the Big 12). They are both great teams on achieving first downs and on 3rd down conversions yet both struggle somewhat with penalties. And while neither team compares to the Big Ten in scoring defense (yes, the Big Ten, not the SEC, is the only conference in the nation with three top ten teams in scoring defense), Texas and Texas Tech have the top two scoring defenses in the Big 12, respectively. So why should Texas be worried? 1) Interceptions. Tech may have the 98th worst passing defense in the country but they are an opportunistic unit. They have 14 interceptions on the year (4 more than their total from 2007) and are ranked 3rd in the nation. Luckily for the Longhorns, they don't typically succumb to turnovers and have given up just four interceptions. This is the toughest team on INTs that Colt McCoy will face in the regular season and if he gets through this game unscathed it could mean the Heisman. 2) Passing Offense. For a unit that is ranked 2nd in the country in sacks, Texas expects to get pressure on the quarterback. But Graham Harrell's line has only allowed him to succumb to three sacks this season. They are the best passing offense in the nation and one must wonder how does the Longhorn's 110th passing defense stop them? Not to mention that Tech has an explosive offense that can change the momentum of the game, quickly erase any good your offense may have done and make completions when least expected. But the fact is that even a team like Oklahoma that seemed to have everything going for them still fell to Texas. And Texas has two things going for it that Oklahoma doesn’t: the top scoring defense and the top total defense in the Big 12. Finally, Texas is good at the small but important things such as their performance in the red zone (both offensively and defensively) and their lack of mistakes.

Colt McCoy may not have Harrell's numbers, he is 2nd in the country in passing efficiency with a tremendous 82% completion percentage. Tech is getting 4 points in this match-up but I'm going with Texas. Come on Mack, you did it for me twice before--how about another win?

College Football Preview Week 9: Penn State@Ohio State

The statistics clearly favor Penn State in their game at Ohio State this weekend. Penn State has the best passing defense in the Big Ten, while Ohio State has the worst passing offense and their total offense, scoring offense and passing efficiency don't match up well either. But, then again, the Buckeyes don't typically win because of their offense. In 2002 when they won the national championship, they ranked 92nd nationally is passing offense and 70th in total offense. They also had one of the worst passing defenses in the country that year. Statistics can back up a point, but they can't be the entire point. And, honestly, the more I look at the stats, the more I dislike Ohio State. They're horrible in the redzone and that includes offense AND defense. Penn State scores touchdowns over 72% of the time while Ohio State takes less than 50% in for six. But, despite my better judgment, I'm choosing Ohio State. I think it's probably obvious to mention turnovers as that's the only category the Buckeyes are doing real well in and that just might determine the outcome of this game. Because if you're looking at sacks, tackles for a loss, tackles for a loss allowed, 3rd down conversions, opponent 3rd down conversion--or basically any stat except for turnovers and time of possession, Penn State easily leads the way. I think this can be the year Ohio State makes it back to the Rose Bowl and let Saturday be the beginning. Beanie Wells just better stay healthy for this one.

NFL Injury Update (LADIES Edition)

rodney harrison

It's already a shame that Rodney Harrison is out for the season, but if this is the end of his career, I consider that a huge loss for the NFL. For those of you who aren't familiar with Harrison, he is a safety for the Patriots (New England) and absolutely adorable. My favorite Harrison moment took place during a press conference when his cell phone rang and he looked down at his phone and said "oh, it's my mom." A guy who talks to his mom after work and talks about his day--so sweet. Anyway, he is going to be 36 on December 15, which is getting up there in football years. And now he has re-injured his right thigh and apparently tore the muscle. What the Patriots will miss about him will not be his stats (they haven't been spectacular since he missed almost the entire 2005 season with an injury) as much as his presence... and we will miss his smile. Or, maybe he will turn NFL commentator?!

tom brady

Yes, this makes football a little less entertaining for some of us now that Harrison is lost in addition to his teammate Tom Brady. What is it with good looking guys going down in 2008? Arguably the two hottest quarterbacks in the NFL are out for the season with Brady and Kyle Boller. And while Boller isn't worth having an a fantasy team, even as a back-up, he's still worth watching for other reasons.

kyle boller

To add to the list of hot guys on the sideline, now Reggie Bush looks to be out at least a game. I blame that more on the curse of dating distracting women though (see Kim Kardashian), which is an entirely separate issue. While not the best NFL rusher, Bush adds to his numbers with his receptions and special teams stats. This means that if you are in an individual defensive player (IDP) league then whoever owns Bush gets the benefits of his punt return numbers. But if you just use an entire team for the Defense/Special Team (DST), then whoever owns New Orleans reaps the rewards of his special teams stats. Be sure to distinguish this when having a fantasy conversation. In the league I run as the commissioner it's IDP, but in the all-guys league it's DST and while I have benefited from huge DST points at times, it has failed me at others. On the night in question I was playing against "Browning's $300 Rescue Package" (renamed after the debacle that took place a few posts ago), who I wanted to beat more than you can imagine. The team is owned by E and sometimes I think his main purpose in life is to find ways to torture me. Anyway, it came down to the Minnesota@New Orleans game and specifically, Reggie Bush. I witnessed him kill his own fantasy numbers not once, but twice when he ran back two punts for touchdowns. Not only did I miss out on the touchdown points, but I didn't get a single yardage point for either of those possessions. It was a painful loss to E and it was caused single-handedly by the own person who was supposed to help me.

Another victim of the distractoressa (i.e., high maintenance girlfriend): Tony Romo. I won't include him in the list of hot injured guys, because he's injured, but not hot. That's right, Jessica Simpson, I don't think your boyfriend is hot. You would think someone with your boobs could do so much better. I know he's the all-American Dallas Cowboys quarterback and that he's a generally likeable guy, but I am not on the bandwagon. I appreciate his fantasy stats, but there's something just a little too enthusiastic and "happy to be here" about him that I can't take. And for those of you who don't believe that low-key wives/girlfriends are a factor, just think if you even know what Ashley Manning (Peyton's wife) looks like. People like Romo think it's fun to be a celebrity and therefore date them. People like Peyton Manning think it's fun to be in the Hall of Fame.

tony romo (not hot)

In addition to the hot guys that are out for the season, we also have a fair share of hot guys that are on the bench for the season, namely Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart. Quinn partly brought this upon himself. He wasn't even in contention for the quarterback position in 2007 because he held out for most of training camp and missed the first preseason game. That year Charlie Frye was traded after the first half of the very first game of the year and had Quinn been around to learn the offense and adjust to the NFL that summer he might have had a chance to play. Now, he's just on the bench (look for #10) waiting for Derek Anderson to screw up. As much as Anderson does not seem like a dynamic enough player to lead this team back to the playoffs, he has been impressive at times and is in...for now. As for Leinart, he had his chance and lost it to a 75 year-old quarterback. Kurt Warner is starting in his place because he has a high completion percentage (about 10% better than Leinart) and a much better TD-INT ratio.

brady quinn

matt leinart

At least Trent Edwards is back. No idea who he is? That's okay because he's been injured most of his career, played college ball at Stanford and is in the Gus Frerotte, Matt Cassel, David Garrard range of quarterbacks at the moment. But, he is actually really good looking as my friend, Rachel, and I discovered unexpectedly while watching games a few weeks ago.

trent edwards

And remember, ladies, these guys are just eye candy. Don't get any fancy ideas--leave that work to the reality show stars and Giselle (and, yes, just let the guys continue to think what they want to about the "super model" and we'll just keep our thoughts to ourselves on this one as you know you've had that discussion).

College Football Week 8 What Happened to Michigan?

As bad as the score looked at 46-17. the Michigan @ Penn State game was actually pretty decent. And thinking that Michigan could cover less than four scores seemed like a pretty decent idea into the second half. However, Michigan self destructed thanks in part to an offense that completely fell apart near the end of the 3rd quarter. A safety, followed by good field position, followed by a semi-blocked punt, followed by a sack and fumble, all in a span of 7 minutes led to 19 points and a complete demoralization of the Wolverines. As much as I hate Michigan, this is just disgusting to watch and it makes me wonder what Rich Rodriguez said at half time to make his team hate him so much.

Week 8 College Football Preview Michigan at Penn State

Considering how bad Michigan is this year and how dominant Penn State's offense has been, it's not hard to imagine why there would be a 24 point spread. Last week Penn State demoralized and embarrassed Wisconsin, while Michigan was busy losing to Toledo. Overall Wisconsin ranks ahead of Michigan in Total defense, Scoring defense, Passing defense and Passing Efficiency and they lost by 41 points last week to the Nittany Lions, so what chance do the Wolverines have? By the way, Michigan is also one of the worst teams in turnover margin in the nation. But, they came into the year with 7 starters on defense who faced a prolific offense in Florida last year in the Capital One Bowl. Plus Rich Rodriguez may have a more qualified response to Penn State's creative offense than Wisconsin did. The fact is that Wisconsin allowed turnovers and special teams to kill their chances of even being in the game and I think Michigan will at the very least lose by less than four scores to Penn State.

"Six Years and No Issuess...you see what happens when a chick comes into the league!"

The conversation regarding my fantasy football team getting kicked out of the guys' league and the unpaid debt of my co-owner (http://blondedevils.blogspot.com/2008/10/boys-will-be-boys.html) took an interesting turn today as the entire league became involved. First, I must admit that as frustrated as I was, I laughed my ass off the entire day reading the emails, including the insults hurled at me by Ass, which were quite funny at times. But, after approximately 50 emails back and forth, we received the following email from Pete Stasiewicz, which brings to light how the upcoming election could potentially impact our life and fantasy teams as we know them:

Although it is obvious from the statement above, please note that the following was written by Pete...

This is getting out of hand so I called McCain and BO for their input.

McCain had this to say:

Well, let -- let me say, Pete, thank you. And thanks to CBS Sportsline. And, by the way, our beloved Pacman is on suspension tonight, so our thoughts and prayers are going with you.

Fantasy football owners are hurting right now, and they're angry. They're hurting, and they're angry. They're innocent victims of greed and excess in the baseball league and as well as the football league. And they're angry, and they have every reason to be angry.

And they want this league to go in a new direction.

But we also have to have a short-term fix, in my view, and long- term fixes. Let me just talk to you about one of the short-term fixes.

The catalyst for this fantasy crisis was the baseball league that caused subprime dues-collection situation that now caused the confidence in this league to collapse.

I am convinced that, until we reverse this continued decline in dues payment and put....

...a floor under it, and so that people have not only the hope and belief they can stay in their leagues and realize the American dream of sneaking into the playoffs through the total-points slot, but that they also manage to win against teams selected by robots.

Now, we have allocated $3,220. Let's take $300 of that $3,220 and go in and buy Browning's debt and negotiate with Browning so he can pay that loan, stay in their league.

Now, I know the criticism of this.

'Well, what about the owner that stayed in their league? That paid their dues payments?' It doesn't help that person in their league if the next door neighbor's team is abandoned. And so we've got to reverse this. We ought to put the teamowners first. And I am disappointed that Secretary Mauro and others have not made that their first priority.

******************************

Obama responded:

Well, first of all, I think it's important for the league membership to understand that the $300 rescue package, if it's structured properly, and, as president, I will make sure it's structured properly, means that ultimately team owners get their money back, and that's important to understand.

But there is no doubt that we've been living beyond our means and we're going to have to make some adjustments.

And some of the cuts, just to give you an example, we spend $300 a year on subsidies to Browning. It doesn't help Holzer fill his gaping bye week hole. It's not improving the Detroit Lions offense. It's just a giveaway.

So, look, nobody likes dues. I would prefer that none of us had to pay dues, including myself. But ultimately, we've got to pay for the core investments that make this league strong and somebody's got to do it.

I hope everyone understands why your vote is so important. Our next president might just impact the way we, as a nation, view fantasy football disagreements.

Legal Issues in Fantasy Sports

In my previous entry, I recounted the story of where I was wrongfully kicked out of a fantasy league for something unrelated to me, but as a punishment to my partner for a prior debt that had nothing to do with fantasy football. It makes me wonder, what is the recourse for fantasy football or any fantasy sports if the commissioner does something immoral, unfair or illegitimate? I suppose small claims court would work, but the fee for filing a claim can be prohibitive depending on the amount of the league’s fees. Obviously, paying 100% of the fee in court costs would not make financial sense. The next issue is venue. With leagues that span across the country, would it be valid to sue a commissioner who lives in Illinois for $230 in a New York small claims court? Even if one had standing to bring a case and won the case, it seems that it would be an impossible judgment to enforce. I’m also not sure to what extent you can enforce small claims court judgments and whether or not they extend out of state.

And what rights does a commissioner have to recoup unpaid league fees? As shown in my previous example, apparently not much, or the big firm litigator would have had another option rather than trying to make ME pay for someone else’s fantasy baseball debt.

With the amount of fantasy leagues around the country and the amount of money that is put into the games, I think we need to establish a Fantasy Arbitration Counsel to settle such potential disputes. After all, companies like ESPN.com, CBSSportsline.com and Yahoo.com make enough money from fantasy sports that perhaps they can help prevent potential crimes from the same.

Boys Will Be Boys...

This year I joined an all-guys fantasy football league so I could experience what it was like to compete with all men instead of all women, as I have done for the past seven years as the commissioner of an all-ladies league. What I discovered is that even if you are almost 40 and a partner at a large law firm, you still can act very much like a child. This league I joined was by far the most restrictive league in terms of rules that I’ve ever witnessed. Who doesn’t allow any free agent pick-ups? If you don’t put in a bid by Wednesday night, you’re out of luck, even if there’s a last minute injury. But, I was fine dealing with their stupid rules, dumb team names (other than “I Impregnated Bristol Palin”) and unimaginative team logos…until today.

I originally was invited to join the league because they were looking to have 14 teams and apparently a few people had dropped out from last year, including my friend Browning (keep in mind for later relevance). At some point the commissioner of the league started harassing Browning, questioning how he could turn his back on seven years of fantasy football with the league. Browning emailed me about it and wished me luck with their 15 page constitution, 14-teams, a draft that takes almost 4 hours and the impending nightmare of finding a running back. Feeling bad that he might miss out on so much joy, I asked him whether or not he was considering playing. He responded that it would only be as a hands-off adviser/consultant. I thought it might be fun to have someone to discuss moves and players with, so I decided to take him on as a partner. It, of course, was still my team and I paid the entire $230 league fee with my own personal pink check.

Unbeknownst to me, Browning had an outstanding debt for the fantasy baseball league he played in with some of these guys last spring. It was due in March/April and Ass (he’s the commissioner of both leagues and that’s the abbreviation for his team name and no, I’m not making this up) failed to collect it from him for over seven months. But today, October 15, Ass decided that he absolutely had to have the $300 owed to him and his league. For the record, Ass is a partner at a major law firm in Chicago so that $300 is the equivalent to about 30 minutes of his time. But apparently to Ass, $300 is a lot of money because he complained about it to me on the phone for an hour and 16 minutes. And, no, I won’t bother pointing out the obvious irony.

Ass was horrified to learn that my fantasy partner and I didn’t discuss intimate details of our lives and previous dealings such that I wouldn’t know about the baseball debt. I’m now starting to wonder if I should have told Browning about the outstanding amount owed on my Saks charge. Nonetheless, Ass said that as partners we were tied together and that I was liable for him. I explained to the great litigator, who apparently doesn’t understand corporate law, that partners are liable for each other to the extent it concerns the partnership—not for things outside the partnership. And fantasy baseball, my dear, is outside of the fantasy football partnership. Again, if this holds true and Browning will pay my Capital One bill this month or even my rent, I would be really happy to front the $300 for the baseball league in exchange!

Despite logic and the fact that Ass is the one that technically failed to collect the money from Browning and that there are several different solutions to recoup the $300 so that the burden didn’t fall on one single person, he thought that the right thing to do was to make the girl who had nothing to do with the fantasy baseball league pay for it. Ass’s solution was to kick my team out of the league and keep my $230. By the way, I’m currently in 3rd place out of 14 teams and my team is looking even better now that Braylon Edwards is back up to par.

Ass then decided an even better way to make money would be to auction off my team because it’s actually that good that someone might pay well above the $230 entrance fee for it and that way he could recoup some of the baseball money. To that I thought “That’s right, my team, picked by a girl, is so good that someone might want to pay $400 after 6 weeks of football for it.” But I responded, “Seriously? You are a partner at a large law firm and you are upset over $300 that you might have to divide with the guy who won $1800 this year and the other weekly winners, which puts it at about $20 per person? Seriously?”

Well, apparently Ass was serious. Boys will be boys, but when did rich men become cheap babies? How does this end? Well, I find it completely disrespectful and I don’t care if Browning pays his debt or not. I quit this league.

As for my pretty pink $230 check, too bad you didn’t cash it yet because my bank canceled it…for free… as a courtesy to me.

Nebraska@Texas Tech Week 7 Preview

If you think that Nebraska’s defense is bad now at 82nd and just entering the heart of the Big 12 schedule, just know that the Black Shirts finished 112th last year. Bo Pelini has a lot of work to do and so far has improved his team by 30 spots. But that could all change this week against Texas Tech. Missouri beat Nebraska in embarrassing fashion 52-17 last week. And perhaps because Pelini came from the SEC, Nebraska’s passing defense has declined somewhat due to the fact that he isn’t used to facing quarterbacks who can actually throw the ball.

A 7th ranked Texas Tech team is favored to win by just 20.5 over Nebraska. The reason why it is “just” over 20 points is because most people don’t respect Tech and perhaps it’s because of the extremely easy schedule thus far. But opponents are scoring just 18.5 points per game while the offense is averaging over 48 points. You never know what is going to happen with Nebraska and as likely that it is that they could get completely blown out in this game the way they did last week, I like Nebraska, especially if you can do a first half bet.

Arkansas@Auburn Week 7 Preview

I'm curious why the 103rd ranked scoring offense in the nation began as a 19 point favorite this week in the match-up against Arkansas? Furthermore, their pass offense is 104th, which is why offensive coordinator, Tony Franklin, was fired less than 10 months after he was hired to implement the spread offense at Auburn and improve a unit that finished 103rd last year. That's right, they actually got worse.

Arkansas may have lost the last three games to Alabama, Texas and Florida by huge margins (an average of 36 points), but those are three very good teams. Plus, 21 of Alabama's 35 point win came as a result of four turnovers. With that said, I suppose if you do the math, Auburn beat La. Monroe 34-0 and Arkansas beat them 28-27, then Auburn should win by 33 points. But this Auburn team was given all of its credit this year based on what it was thought Tony Franklin could do with its offense--and as that has now officially backfired, I am picking Arkansas to cover in this game.

Fantasy Football Thoughts for Week 6

Fantasy Thoughts for Women Week 6 (note: if you are man, please scroll down to the bottom)

Chances are that the last month has not been a great one for any of you out there (unless you’re one of those people who typically has bad luck, then, of course, please know that this is just a façade). Mercury is in Retrograde once again and reeking havoc on everything from communicating, thinking, processing information and making decisions to the internet, cell phones and television to traveling, finances and learning. Basically, changes, frustration, blockages and aggravation. The good news is that if your life appears to be a mess and you can’t make a decision to save it, Mercury will start moving in the right direction in about a week and completely back to normal after Halloween. The bad is that every year the beginning of football season is plagued by Mercury Retrograde, thus affecting our line-ups and perhaps even our drafts. This is where your intuition really has to come into play because all of the information we are getting from the Internet, radio and television is severely tampered with during this time. While Mercury didn’t appear to start moving backwards until September 24^th, we have been impacted by the slowing down, stopping and reversal of the planet since September 4^th. With that in mind, I would suggest not making any impulsive fantasy football decisions during this time and try to really look at this year’s events as rationally as possible.

First, do not freak out about LaDainian Tomlinson. Sure Darren Sproles had more fantasy points than he did this week, but that’s thanks to special teams. LT was held by Miami to just 35 yards this week. But keep in mind, Miami has the 7^th best rushing defense. And while I would normally attribute a turnaround from the last ranked rush defense in the league in 2007 to the top 10 after just 4 weeks of play in 2008, I’m giving credit here to the arrival of Bill Parcels and his 3-4 scheme. This is what he does. With that said, I might say that Miami beating New England and San Diego back-to-back has something to do with the planetary influence.

Regardless, I know that none of you LT owners would even consider trading him so the worst that can happen is that you bench him in favor of Sproles or someone similar against New England this weekend. Logic might tell you that he isn’t the best start this week—but Mercury Retrograde should tell you that this is the week to start him.

Speaking of New England, if Kevin Faulk is available you can pick him up on waivers or as a free agent, but don’t let his two touchdowns against Kansas City’s 31^st ranked rush defense persuade you to thinking you could ever use him in your line-up in a situation that’s anything less than desperate. Bill Bellichick messes with our heads and this committee situation has effectively eliminated Patriot running backs as fantasy starters.

As for Michael Turner, this may turn out to be an illusion as well. Turner has been anointed as a fantasy stud and while I love that he’s found success in Atlanta, I recommend keeping an eye on his opponent from week to week:

Opponent	Opp Rush Def Rank	Turner’s yds	Opp Rush TD Def Rank	TurnerTDs
Week 1 v. Detroit	30th horrible	220 yds	27th horrible	2 TDs
Week 2 @ Tampa Bay	14th average	42 yds	1st excellent	0 TDs
Week 3 v. Kansas City	31st horrible	104 yds	31st horrible	3 TDs
Week 4 @ Carolina	13th average	56 yds	3rd excellent	0 TDs
Week 5 @ Green Bay	27th horrible	121 yds	17th average	1 TD
Week 6 v. Chicago	4th great	X	12th above average	Y

My guess for the values of X and Y are:

X = around 50 yards

Y = 0 touchdowns

Fantasy Thoughts for Men Week 6:

If you don’t own LaDainian Tomlinson, try to trade for him now. You can get him for a bargain—be sure to mention his injury and how San Diego has fallen from grace. This is the time to make a move with the loss to Miami still fresh. Also add that Darren Sproles had more fantasy points last week.

Pick up Kevin Faulk if you can get him cheap or for free—and trade him to someone else. He doesn’t have a huge upside in New England’s back-by-committee system. And someone will be desperate enough to take a chance on him, especially in a 14 team league.

Keep enjoying Michael Turner’s success if you have him, but keep in mind that he might start to fade in Week 8. Other than Denver in Week 11 and perhaps New Orleans, he is going to face some pretty decent rush defenses. Gone are the days of facing the 27th, 30th and 31st ranked rushing defenses. If you have any specific needs, you may be able to get a pretty valuable package in exchange for Turner.

Ohio State@Wisconsion Preview Week 6

Ohio State@Wisconsin. Other than the fact that Bret Bielema has never lost at Camp Randall as head coach (16-0), Ohio State also needs to worry about some other things, namely PJ Hill. Hill is 14th in the nation in rushing and this is the first time the Buckeyes will face him. Last year Wisconsin was forced to bring its third string quarterback to Columbus as a result of injury and suspension and were held to just 12 net yards rushing. I expect this year to be much different. The Buckeyes ended that game with 28 unanswered points to win 38-17. But then again, who can Wisconsin blame for their meltdown to Michigan last weekend after being ahead 19-0?

The key in this game will be Ohio State's offense: if/how they can move the ball against a strong Wisconsin defense and help out the defense, unlike they did in the USC game where the Buckeye defense was repeatedly defending short fields for the Trojans. This is Terrelle Pryor's first real test and I trust in his ability to get into the endzone more than I do anyone on that team.

My pick+Ohio State.

All About Alabama...Week 6 of CFB

Last week when Alabama beat Georgia, it wasn’t so much about showing us how great the Crimson Tide are as it was exposing Georgia for the team that they really are. Their quarterback may have the best arm in the country according to some, but he isn’t the best at his position. So can we put the “Matthew Stafford is the greatest” rumor to rest now? Stafford had 274 yards in the game, but in the first half (you know, the one that set the tone of the game and made Alabama’s victory a foregone conclusion) he had just around 60 yards and ended four of their five drives with two incompletions, an intentional grounding penalty and an interception. The majority of his yards came in the second half with Bama leading 31-0. John Parker Wilson, on the other hand, had just 205 yards, but he averaged 12.8 yards, completed over 80% of his passes and didn’t have any turnovers. Something about this Alabama team reminds me eerily of Ohio State last year (albeit JPW is considerably more experienced than Todd Boeckman was)—a quarterback who is relied upon to manage the game and not make mistakes, but not expected to win the game as that’s left to the running game and the defense.

And with that said, my warning to Alabama is to watch its back. The #2 ranked spot was a bad omen for seven teams last year (and it all began this exact week last year). And while I don’t believe that we are going to see a repeat of 2007, this last week of September was surprisingly similar to last year’s final week of September when three of the top five teams were defeated.

This week Alabama plays Kentucky at home. Kentucky is 4-0 (although against four weak opponents), they’ve allowed just one sack all year and are averaging over 200 yards rushing per game in their last three games. The quarterback situation is working its way out with Mike Hartline, who has only officially been the starting quarterback since Curtis Pulley was kicked off the team in early August. And while they may not be the fourth least penalized team in the country like Alabama, they’re 22nd, which is a far cry from Georgia who had 10 penalties for 81 yards on Saturday.

And, yes, I realize Bama has the 3rd best rushing defense in the country and held Georgia to a team total of 50 yards on the ground last week. But, the Bulldogs only ran the ball a total of 16 times since they were playing from behind the entire game. So while Hartline will be relied upon immensely to move the ball through the air, I’m not convinced that Kentucky won’t be able to run the ball at all. As we saw last week, Oregon State entered the game against USC with the 83rd ranked rushing offense facing the nation’s 6th best rushing defense and Jacquizz Rodgers proceeded to rush for 186 yards and two touchdowns.

It would be hard to imagine that Nick Saban doesn’t have his team mentally prepared for this game and especially with Kentucky’s #1 ranked scoring defense in the country he has something to help motivate them. But I don’t think the Tide is as good as they showed us in the first half last week. Georgia really fell apart. Sometimes teams that aren’t used to losing just aren’t good when it comes to facing adversity. This was a Georgia team that had won 11 games straight (it had been the second longest active streak among FBS schools next to BYU). Alabama is favored by 16.5 points--I think that’s a lot and I would take a chance on Kentucky to cover here.

NFL Rookie Report (after almost 4 weeks)

St. Louis’ Donnie Avery was targeted 7 times yesterday—but had just 3 catches for 22 yards. What impressed me most was his one and only carry of the game that went for 37 yards for a touchdown. He looked really fast and his score provided the Rams with their first 1^st quarter points of the season—as well as their first lead this year. It didn’t last though. Although Steven Jackson had a big day going over 100 yards and a scoring a touchdown himself, perhaps utilizing Avery more would help—the Rams are ranked at the bottom of the league in rushing offense (29^th) and not too far ahead in passing offense (25^th). Trent Green cannot be the answer and clearly Scott Linehan wasn’t either. It should be interesting to see what happens as Jim Haslett takes over the team for the interim. And Avery is someone to keep watching. He was the first receiver taken in the 2008 NFL draft so someone thought he was worth it.

DeSean Jackson had some big plays for Philadelphia last night and some really bad plays. Good passes by McNabb at times contributed to that—and poor passes by McNabb at times hurt him. He had the first touchdown of his NFL career (as we all know, it would have been his second, but he dropped the first one in premature celebration against Dallas). Sure Jackson made some mistakes (like fumbling a punt on his own 24 yard line)—but these guys need to be humbled every now and then. After that, he looked somewhat hesitant on punt returns and let the next one bounce past him to give the Eagles poor field position on the 4-yard line. Ironically, this guy was a great punt returner in college as he holds the Pac-10 record for the most punt returns for touchdowns (6). However, most of his brilliance came in 2006—four of his returns went for touchdowns that year. In his first two years at Cal he had almost a 20% rate of returns for touchdowns. But last year he didn’t have a single return for a touchdown after the first game of the year. Perhaps it was due to teams kicking away from him—or partially because of Cal’s monumental collapse, losing six of their last seven games. But the Eagles got to see both sides of Desean Jackson last night—the confident, cocky player—and the uncertain one who makes mistakes and fails to make plays. Luckily for them, having watched this guy play for three years in college and the first few games this year—I think he’s the former.

Another rookie in that Bears v. Eagles game was Matt Forte. While his numbers weren’t good this week—in fact, his worst numbers yet—his plays were great. Especially at the end of the game, he was able to get crucial movement and first downs for Chicago. He also has established himself as a receiver. After Reggie Bush and Steven Jackson, he’s next on the list in terms of backs who are looked to for the passing game. Of course, Kyle Orton is going to need to stop overthrowing the ball so much if those numbers are going to improve.

For Houston, rookie running back Steve Slaton was targeted 8 times and had 8 receptions. So in a week like this where Houston struggled to run the ball against a pretty decent Jaguar rush defense (of course, when you’re Houston weeks like this happen all of the time. They’re just 22^nd in rushing offense and have the second least number of rushing touchdowns in the league). With that said, Slaton is getting most of the carries so I expect that number to improve as the Texans find some balance and get their passing game going. They did that this week and lost by just three points—their smallest margin of defeat all year. Andre Johnson hasn’t helped matters by being completely unreliable the last two weeks-- catching just around 25% of balls thrown his way. Either he will help out the offense or perhaps Slaton will become even more involved. Not sure if next week is the week for the passing game to flourish though when the Colts come to town with the 2^nd best passing defense in the league. However, Slaton may be the key as Indianapolis also happens to hold the 2^nd worst rushing defense in the league.

Perhaps somewhat expected, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson had his least productive game moving the ball against Minnesota’s 4^th best rushing defense in the league. He had just 61 yards. However, he did earn his first two rushing touchdowns of the year and his NFL career (not his first touchdown though as that was a reception in Week 1). Again—somewhat expected since when it comes to rushing touchdowns, the Vikings defense is one of the worst. According to Fantasy stats so far this year, Johnson is bordering on being a number one back. Of course—a lot can change over the next few months. I might wait to start him next week against Baltimore until I see how the rookie Rashard Mendenhall handles the Ravens Defense tonight.

Denver’s Eddie Royal—who happened to be just the 3^rd best receiver at Virginia Tech last year in receiving yards per game—has led the Broncos in receiving yards in two of their four games this year. This week he had his second 100+ yard game. He has two touchdowns already and I like his chances to score next week against Tampa Bay.

Jonathan Stewart may not get a lot of carries for the Carolina Panthers with DeAngelo Williams there (he’s averaging just 11 per game). The good news is that it looks like he’s at least splitting carries with Williams and he already has four touchdowns on the year. That’s the second most in the league—and tied with LT.

If Dallas wasn’t sure how to lose a game (other than allowing Tony Romo to be distracted by Jessica Simpson), they learned last night—just don’t run the ball...at all. Rookie Felix Jones didn’t have a single carry in the game. While Jones is simply there to complement Marion Barber—he can’t do much if Barber himself is only getting eight carries, as he did on Sunday against Washington. From a fantasy perspective, Jones will be helpful as long as he continues to score and make the most of the few carries that he does see.

As for the guy who ran ahead of Jones at Arkansas, Darren McFadden was impressive in the first two weeks. But a toe injury has decreased his production the past two weeks and his yards per carry have declined. With Justin Fargas out that leaves Michael Bush, who technically isn’t a rookie, but was recovering all of last year on the PUP list from the broken tibia injury that sidelined him for his entire senior season at Louisville (other than the first game) and ended his college career. But it looks like McFadden and Fargas are expected to return after next week’s bye so it will be important to keep an eye on how and when Bush is used.

Finally, on Monday Night Football, we have Rashard Mendenhall for the Steelers against a Raven’s 3^rd ranked rushing defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown in two games. And Joe Flacco faces the 6^th best passing defense that has only given up two passing touchdowns this year. At least we’ll find out what these rookies are made of tonight. By the way, I hate the Steelers and the Ravens so other than scouting fantasy players, there's not much for me to enjoy tonight.

Week 5 College Football: The Fall to the Unranked

#1USC@Oregon State (21-27). USC had no answer for the Rodgers brothers and were consistently beat at the line—both lines. Maybe they did lose something last year when seven of their players were chosen in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft? They only returned 4 starters on offense and 7 starters on defense. Mark Sanchez was pressured all night and he struggled all night. But most importantly, Oregon State’s Jacquizz Rodgers ran for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns behind a strong offensive line and slippery moves that evaded the USC defenders. Yes, this was the same Oregon State team that was demolished by Penn State just one week ago 45-14.

And now that Duke beat UVA 31-3, it puts USC’s win over UVA in Week 1 into perspective. Perhaps if people had realized earlier this year that Virginia’s team had been completely depleted, they wouldn’t have put so much value on USC’s 52-7 victory over them and wouldn’t have moved them to the number one spot and then the number one team in the nation wouldn’t have been defeated by an unranked opponent this week. This is why pre-season rankings and early season rankings are so meaningless.

Maryland@#20Clemson (20-17). Last year in their three losses, Clemson was held to a net of 30 yards rushing per game. And in their loss to Alabama this year, they had a net of 0 rushing yards. It seemed that the key to winning was making sure James Davis and CJ Spiller could run. Unfortunately, that was not the answer as today Spiller and Davis each had over 100 yards rushing in their 20-17 loss to Maryland. Part of the problem was Clemson’s three turnovers. And Cullen Harper passed for just 151 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. On the year he has just three touchdowns to five interceptions. For Maryland, this was their 4^th straight win over an AP ranked opponent.

Ole Miss@#4 Florida (31-30). Last year 13 top 5 teams fell to unranked opponents. This week so far we have #1 USC and now #4 Florida thanks to a missed extra point, three turnovers (for 10 points) and a huge stop on 4^th and 1. Then again, Florida has done this 6 of the past 7 years—in six of the last seven years they were ranked yet fell to unranked opponents (including twice to Ole Miss):

2007 lost to Auburn

2005 lost to South Carolina

2004 lost to Mississippi St.

2003 lost to Ole Miss

2002 lost to Ole Miss

#9 Wisconsin@Michigan (25-27). Wisconsin was beating Michigan 19-0 but allowed the Wolverines to come back—their biggest comeback in the Big House ever. Michigan won 27-25 thanks to a failed two-point conversion by Wisconsin. Initially it was successful but called back due to an illegal man downfield.

Navy@#16Wake Forest (24-17). Wake Forest entered this game #1 in the nation in turnover margin. They had six turnovers in this game, good for 17 Navy points.

Houston@# 23East Carolina (42-21). After beating two ranked opponents in weeks one and two and starting off the season 3-0, ECU has now lost two in a row.