College Football Week 5 Preview of Alabama@Georgia

Alabama@Georgia (-6.5). Is it possible that USC and Georgia could go down in the same week? Yes, although it's not probable, it is possible. The fact is that these teams have a lot of similarities. Despite all the talking we do about Knowshon Moreno, Alabama is the team leading the SEC in rushing offense thanks to Glenn Coffee and Mark Ingram. When it comes to scoring and rushing defense, these teams are at the top of the game, yet neither of them can brag about their passing defense. They're about equal in the turnover game as well. And most importantly, I happen to dislike both of their quarterbacks even in light of the fact that John Parker Wilson will leave Alabama will all sorts of records and Matthew Stafford will be an over-inflated first round pick in the NFL Draft. But don't get me wrong, if I had to pick one, it's obviously Stafford. His passing efficiency is much improved so far this year. And at least Stafford has an arm on him: 20 passes over 15 yards and 11 passes over 25 yards. He's strongest in the 2nd and 4th quarters, but not on third down (just hitting 50% of his passes). And he leads the top total offense in the SEC. But how is Georgia's young and ever-changing O-line going to hold up against Alabama's defense? They've already allowed 6 sacks this year after giving up a total of just 15 all of last year. And from what we saw in the USC-Oregon State game--it was all about blocking on the line. On a positive note for the Bulldogs, Alabama doesn't have a fantastic passing defense--nowhere near South Carolina's number one ranked unit that held Stafford to just 146 yards and no scores. But, what about true freshman kicker Blair Walsh--he's at 71.4% so far this year in successful field goals so that could be a factor (his predecessor Brandon Coutu was successful on 79% of his career field goals and 100% of his extra points). Could special team make a differnce?

Oddly enough while John Parker Wilson's biggest struggle last year was on 3rd down, completing just 43.9% of those passes, this year he is at his best in that situation (61.8% and 3 TDs this year). Last year Alabama had one of the worst red-zone defenses in the country--this year they've only given up 2 touchdowns in 7 tries. I point this out because while Georgia's passing game has "appeared" to improve--Alabama has also improved in a lot of categories as well. They only lost last year to Georgia by 3 points in overtime so these things could make the difference. Plus, who the hell is going to block Mount Cody for Georgia? Finally, Georgia is the most penalized team in the country and Alabama is one of the least.

My big question for this game is which team is going to be able to run the ball most successfully today? As Alabama has improved under Saban, they may lose, but not by much (largest losing margin in 2007 was 7). So taking Alabama +6.5 isn't a bad idea.

Some other thoughts:
* Georgia has won the last three in the series and is currently holding an 11-game winning streak.
* For Georgia, Knowshon Moreno is averaging 6.6 yards per rush and even more importantly, he already has 9 touchdowns this year. For Alabama, Glenn Coffee has averaged 8.6 yards per rush, but only has 2 touchdowns. But neither have faced worthy opponents on the defensive side of the ball.
* Alabama may have beaten the top ranked rushing defense in Conference USA, but that's a far cry from the top ranked rushing defense in the SEC.