Monday, September 15, 2008

Week 3: a Big Blow to the Big TEN...but not a bad day

Despite what some may think, the Big Ten actually had a very good day last Saturday (9/13/08). More than we can say about the Pac-10, which lost 70% of it’s games, including four shockers: Washington State to Baylor, California to Maryland, Arizona State to UNLV and UCLA to BYU (okay, so they weren’t expected to win, but they lost by 59 points!) Every team in the Big Ten did exactly what they were supposed to do. Purdue even had a 17-point lead over a far superior Oregon team in the first half. They may have lost that game, but it took the Ducks going to over-time to do it. Michigan State's Javon Ringer put up 282 yards rushing. Wisconsin beat a Fresno State team whom many expected them to lose to and moved up to the Top 10 in the AP Rankings. And the fact is that Michigan v. Notre Dame was a toss up (the spread was an indicator of confusion as to who should win as opposed to what the score the be). Now, as to what happened to Ohio State? Nothing. They just aren’t as good of a team as we expected them to be after last year. While the entire team is to blame for this loss, it is worthwhile to mention that Todd Boeckman most certainly did not do his job, unless of course he was working for USC and then a meager 84 yards coupled with no scores and three turnovers would most certainly have qualified. Number seven was supposed to be the leader of the offense—a guy who you rely on to make good decisions—the man charged with spreading out the USC defense to diffuse their speed and set up the run. Not so much. Okay, so he hasn’t always been the best quarterback, but last weekend’s game he had the second worse passer rating of his career. And for those of you SEC fans who think his lowest must have been against LSU, just know that he had a rating of almost 135 in that game. It was last year’s Michigan game where he really stumbled. And as uninteresting as Ohio State’s defense has looked in 2008, I don’t even blame them for this loss. They were constantly forced to deal with short field positions (including two drives starting within their own 40 yard line). USC only had 350 total yards in this game.


But I’m not convinced that USC is the best football team in the country just yet. I liked their defense and if you look at their last two games against Big Ten opponents (Illinois 1/01/08 and last week’s miserable game), it’s pretty obvious that a team without a strong passing game has no chance to set up the run against them. I think we were all guilty of giving Ohio State too much credit. Last year was a down year for the Big Ten and being the best of the worst doesn’t really say much. (Please note, I am in no way supporting the SEC bandwagon that they are far superior and the Big Ten is weak, I am just stating the obvious, that they had a down year. Nothing more to read into that.). Sanchez looked good against a tired OSU defense but didn’t really bear the burden of moving the ball for 60 minutes. And this is a sloppy Trojan team in their first two games with the high amount of penalties and penalty yards they’ve incurred.


And yet, I stand by my initial belief that the winner of this game plays for the National Title against Oklahoma.


And to my friend Eric, who likes to argue with me for no apparent reason, I’ve dedicated this “Ode to the Gambler” to you. You need to understand that these "odds" don't reflect how good a team is supposed to be, especially in the opening weeks of college football when we essentially know nothing. And I’m sure you already know this, but just wanted to give me a hard time about the Big Ten even though they won the majority of their games, which is more than can be said about the Pac-10. But let me remind you, that the odds simply reflect what "you" think of the teams and how they are going to do. Luckily “you” the gambler will get smarter as the year goes on, just as we all will. Afterall, the information out there right now is pure speculation. Seriously, can pre-season rankings be more of a joke? They're only published because it’s good television and it makes money. It just doesn't make sense to have rankings this early in the year and that's why my rankings, will not be out until October.


By the way, Terrelle Pryor completed almost 80% of his passes.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I still don't think the Big Ten was even in the ballpark of having a "very good day" on Saturday. I mean I'm happy for Javon Ringer and all but outside the Ringer family and the people of East Lansing, does anyone really care how many yards rushing he had? The most hyped game of the year has easily been the OSU-USC game. Whether you agree with it or not, the results of the other Big Ten games were going to be and have been dwarfed by this game. The questions going into the game about the speed of the Big Ten in relation to the other conferences were significantly reinforced by the blowout even sans Beanie Wells. That "Big Blow" would have been sufficient to cause the Big Ten to have a bad day regardless of what the other teams in the conference had done. However, as you said, every other team in the Big Ten did exactly what they were supposed to do.

...that is except for Michigan in the second most hyped/watched game for the conference Saturday (despite both teams being down for the year). The spread did start out as basically a toss-up (Mich -1) but the overwhelming majority of the action was on Michigan. The spread moved to Michigan being favored by a field goal plus, which is not an insignificant amount for a road team with a freshman QB. If I were going to give an "Ode to the Gambler," I would mention the despair those gamblers are feeling that have bet on Michigan this year. I'm pretty sure if I had bet on Michigan, I would have spent a large chunk of Sunday sobbing into my pillow (not that that's different than most Sundays) and pleading with God for answers. Trust me, any answer that included a reference to Javon Ringer's 282 yards would not have appeased me.

Also, while you're right that Wisconsin moved up in the top ten after Saturday, much of that was the direct consequence of the OSU debacle. Hardly a win-win for the conference.